[B][U]MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 28-23[/U][/B]

Tulsa is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, so that sort of negates the huge homefield advantage for UCF that I am hearing from people. And Tulsa becomes bowl eligible with a win tonight.

I have watched every UCF game except two, and I've wagered on three of them. UCF's offense looks god awful this year, and their defense has been exploited against an offense with a pulse (SMU), and even one without a pulse (UAB).

Tulsa destroyed a good SMU team, and I was impressed. And UCF has lost alot of last...

To be honest no one should care about how a complete stranger manages his money, but since there are six threads about me going on right now, I'll just say this:

On Oct 27, I posted a "lock" play on the Miami Hurricanes that caught alot of people's attention I guess.

At that time, my football record was 26-15 ... not phenomenal, but acceptable. It had been 23-11 as recently as Oct 21.

The Miami play lost, and since then I've gone 2-8 in the last six days (went 1-5 on Saturday). And now I have people saying that I...

Football record: 25-15 (63%)

These are my thoughts on this matchup tomorrow, you'll probably disagree with most of this. Feel free to fire away. I don't care.

Analyzing this game from Pitt's perspective, everything hinges on Graham's ability to pound the rock. UCONN will not score more than 13 points, so the question is whether Graham/Susneri will score less than 23 points.

[B]Will this game be like the Utah loss?[/B] No. Utah's rush defense is much better than UCONN's becuase Utah has played far better competition than UCONN. Utah's rush defense on paper is #14, in reality it is...

[FONT=Impact][SIZE=3]MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 23-11 [COLOR=darkgreen]([/COLOR][COLOR=darkgreen]68%)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

Well, Syracuse should actually be 2-4, since they should have lost the Wake Forest game (Syracuse needed OT after Wake QB destroyed them all game before getting injured). And of course they beat Toledo on the classic extra point mis-call. So ask yourself: what would this line be if Syracuse had lost those two games?

[B]Tonight's game[/B]: both teams off the bye, WVU in a revenge spot and getting more comfortable by the week with the new coaching change. Bill Stewart's departure has radically made WVU a better team, and they will victimize Syracuse's...

[B]MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 23-10[/B]
[B][COLOR=darkolivegreen]Current Win Streak: 10-0[/COLOR][/B]
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I couldn't settle on a side with the points for either game, so I've cooked up a 2-team ML parlay that I feel very confident about.

In the UCF game, I feel that UCF winning SU is a lock based upon their defense and UAB's abysmal offense. My models show UCF wining by 16, so I couldn't find value in the spread. IF UCF doesn't win SU then I deserve to lose my bet. The more interesting game is...

[B]Arizona/UCLA[/B]. If Breuhaut started for UCLA I'd predict a 3-point Arizona win...

[B]Machine Choice Football: 22-10[/B]
[B][COLOR=darkgreen]Current Win Streak: 9-0[/COLOR][/B]
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[B]Arkansas State[/B] is going to throw all over FIU tomorrow using their up tempo offense. Aplin is averaging 274 yards per game, and that's despite the fact that he had to go on the road to face Va Tech and Illinois. He hung 290 yards on Illinois in their own house. He'll hang 300 yards+ on FIU. He's thrown some picks, but they've all been on the road. People see that FIU beat UCF and Louisville, and they respect that. I don't respect that. First of all, Louisville is far worse than Arkansas...

[B]MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 21-10[/B]

Whenever I get a chance to fade Donovan McNabb against a decent defense I normally jump at it, and tonight is my chance and I took it. Bears aren't getting much respect because of their record, but realize they have already played three of the best teams (Saints, Packers, Lions). Now the Vikes roll in high off their win against a mediocre Cardinals team, but I think the Bears are going to dish them a reality check at Soldier Field.

[B][U]Tonight's game[/U][/B]: The Vikings give up 272 yards per game passing, which means a matchup...

[FONT=Impact][SIZE=3]MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 21-10[/SIZE][/FONT]

Last year when these two teams met in Tempe, ASU outgained the National Title contenders by 212 yards but lost the game due to 7 turnovers. Consider that last year's ASU team only had 8 returning starters for that matchup. This year's team is clearly better, not only as seen by their record but also by the fact that they returned 17 starters this year. In contrast, Oregon's team was dismantled in the offseason and now tonight: no LaMichael James. The loss of James is obviously serious, and let me just point out that he...

I was gonna bet this game Friday night ... but after getting into the guts of these teams, I can't help but think that Hawaii may have thrown the UNLV game. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but it just doesn't make sense that Hawaii could possibly lose that game. But they did. And they did it by losing four fumbles, which is how you throw a game without raising suspicion.

Follow me here...UNLV is #113 in offense and #118 in defense. Pretty much they are the worst team at the FBS level. Hawaii is #25 in total offense....

MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 18-10

The Bears haven't been road-tested much this year and the Lions have only played one home game, so I think this sets up a nice intangible for the Lions. Also, consider that they have a chance to match the 1956 team in starting 5-0 and the fact that they haven't had a regular season MNF game there in 10 years. It just seems to me that it is going to be a frenzied environment. Well, Cutler doesn't do well in chaotic situations. I don't see how anyone can really back him here, his body language exudes...